Category: Betting Analytics

Betting the Under on NFL Player Props

This NFL Player Prop Bet made $106,975 over the last 2.5 years

(This article was published November 2019 but is still relevant to NFL player prop bets)

This brain-dead bet made over and over without thinking would have netted you $106,975 if you made it on every regular season game for the 2017, 2018 and, first 8 games of the 2019 season.

No thinking required. Just write a script to make this bet for you online or do it yourself manually each week.

The odds used for these bets are from Bovada online sportsbook.

Total number of NFL player prop bets tracked for the 2017, 2018 & first 8 weeks of the 2019 season.  16,659 bets.

These bets are on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and, tight ends. There is a breakdown of return by bet type on by player position at the end of the article.

Bet the under of every NFL player prop bet

There it is. Brilliant! That is all you had to do for the last two and a half years to make over $100,000 betting on sports. Each week there are between 350 and 450 prop bets depending on the number of teams that are off and if there are many injuries to star players.

I know it seems like a lot. The average number of prop bets in this research are 396 a week.

396.64 bets X $100 = $39,664 bet each week

Average return on you bets each week is $2,547.

Not the biggest return which is one reason most professional gamblers do not bother with this kind of bet. However, if you are building your bankroll or you could use an extra $2,500 each week of the NFL season it is not a bad way to make some money.

The downside of this type of betting is twofold. The first is it takes around $40,000 in the bank to take advantage of it. The second, it is time consuming. Going online and betting every bet by hand takes hours of work.

Bovada NFL Player Prop Bets Analysis

An example of a bet would be:

Drew Brees 285.5 Passing Yards (over -110) & under (-110)

If you bet $100 on the over and he throws for 300 yards, then you collect the $90.90 on the win & you get your $100 bet back. If you had bet the under and it went over then you would lose $100.00

Bet win = $90.90

Bet loss = -$100

The difference between the two is how the sportsbook makes it’s money.

This is a breakdown by bet type.
IF you bet $100 on the OVER on every bet

OVER Bets Win Loss Total
 Completions $47,399.20 ($62,100.00) ($14,700.80)
 Interceptions $41,083.24 ($58,100.00) ($17,016.76)
 Passing Attempts $32,496.83 ($49,300.00) ($16,803.17)
 Passing Yards $46,990.57 ($65,200.00) ($18,209.43)
 Receiving Yards $152,599.88 ($242,100.00) ($89,500.12)
 Receptions $142,031.91 ($210,400.00) ($68,368.09)
 Rush & Rec Yards $19,550.27 ($33,400.00) ($13,849.73)
 Rushing Attempts $173.91 ($300.00) ($126.09)
 Rushing Yards $77,922.59 ($120,500.00) ($42,577.41)
 Touchdown Passes $45,040.11 ($62,400.00) ($17,359.89)
Total $605,288.52 ($903,800.00) ($298,511.48)

The thing to notice here is that EVERY bet has a negative return if you just bet the over. There is a good reason for this. The sportsbooks know that fans will love to bet the over and the lines are all shaded upward.

Here is the bet breakdown by number of bets

OVER Bet Wins Win Loss Push Total
 Completions 560 621 17 1,198
 Interceptions 597 581 15 1,193
 Passing Attempts 381 493 3 877
 Passing Yards 553 652 1,205
 Receiving Yards 1,788 2,421 4,209
 Receptions 1,692 2,104 311 4,107
 Rush & Rec Yards 233 334 567
 Rushing Attempts 2 3 5
 Rushing Yards 907 1,205 2,112
 Touchdown Passes 493 624 69 1,186
Total 7,206 9,038 415 16,659

As you can see here, there are some bets that “push” and are counted as a $0 return.

Now let’s take a look at what would have happened if you had bet the under.

UNDER Bets Win Loss Total
 Completions $55,668.77 ($56,000.00) ($331.23)
 Interceptions $67,844.58 ($59,700.00) $8,144.58
 Passing Attempts $43,874.69 ($38,100.00) $5,774.69
 Passing Yards $58,017.47 ($55,300.00) $2,717.47
 Receiving Yards $215,661.63 ($178,800.00) $36,861.63
 Receptions $193,959.78 ($169,200.00) $24,759.78
 Rush & Rec Yards $30,188.95 ($23,300.00) $6,888.95
 Rushing Attempts $280.29 ($200.00) $80.29
 Rushing Yards $106,876.63 ($90,700.00) $16,176.63
 Touchdown Passes $55,202.88 ($49,300.00) $5,902.88
Total $827,575.67 ($720,600.00) $106,975.67

Here is the breakdown by number of bets made.

UNDER Bet Wins Win Loss Push Total
 Completions 621 560 17 1,198
 Interceptions 581 597 15 1,193
 Passing Attempts 493 381 3 877
 Passing Yards 652 553 1,205
 Receiving Yards 2,421 1,788 4,209
 Receptions 2,104 1,692 311 4,107
 Rush & Rec Yards 334 233 567
 Rushing Attempts 3 2 5
 Rushing Yards 1,205 907 2,112
 Touchdown Passes 624 493 69 1,186
Total 9,038 7,206 415 16,659

Top 20 NFL OVER & UNDER Players

Which players were the best for betting the over and which were the best for betting the under?

Here are the top twenty over & under players. Because this is total return the more bets a player has the more likely he is to be at the top or bottom of the list. Quarterbacks have the most bets available on them each week, so they dominate the list.

 

Top OVER NFL Players

Rank Player Win Loss Push Total
1  Josh Jacobs $1,117.51 ($300.00) $817.51
2  Michael Thomas $3,897.50 ($3,100.00) $0.00 $797.50
3  Willie Snead $2,362.95 ($1,700.00) $662.95
4  Cooper Kupp $2,605.08 ($2,000.00) $0.00 $605.08
5  Davante Adams $3,055.45 ($2,500.00) $0.00 $555.45
6  Andrew Luck $4,063.13 ($3,600.00) $463.13
7  Chris Godwin $1,640.50 ($1,200.00) $440.50
8  D.J. Chark  $927.58 ($500.00) $427.58
9  Hunter Henry $1,219.41 ($800.00) $419.41
10  Kendrick Bourne $613.91 ($200.00) $413.91
11  Ted Bridgewater $1,482.06 ($1,100.00) $382.06
12  Jakobi Meyers $380.87 $380.87
13  Adam Humphries $2,358.27 ($2,000.00) $358.27
14  C.J. Beathard $2,655.06 ($2,300.00) $0.00 $355.06
15  Nyheim Hines $1,251.36 ($900.00) $0.00 $351.36
16  Jason Witten $1,932.12 ($1,600.00) $0.00 $332.12
17  Alfred Blue $413.67 ($100.00) $313.67
18  Rhett Ellison $311.47 $311.47
19  Geno Smith $403.38 ($100.00) $303.38
20  Marqise Lee $983.64 ($700.00) $0.00 $283.64

Top UNDER NFL Players

Rank Player Win Loss Push Total
1  Derek Carr $6,923.14 ($11,900.00) ($4,976.86)
2  Tom Brady $7,668.45 ($12,300.00) $0.00 ($4,631.55)
3  Philip Rivers $7,102.03 ($11,700.00) $0.00 ($4,597.97)
4  Drew Brees $6,005.80 ($10,500.00) $0.00 ($4,494.20)
5  Kirk Cousins
$7,528.86 ($11,800.00) ($4,271.14)
6  Marcus           Mariota
$6,729.88 ($11,000.00) $0.00 ($4,270.12)
7  Mitchell Trubisky
$5,357.13 ($9,600.00) $0.00 ($4,242.87)
8  Russell Wilson
$8,326.01 ($12,200.00) $0.00 ($3,873.99)
9  LeSean McCoy $2,741.50 ($6,500.00) $0.00 ($3,758.50)
10  Aaron Rodgers $5,173.97 ($8,900.00) $0.00 ($3,726.03)
11  Dak Prescott $8,240.82 ($11,700.00) $0.00 ($3,459.18)
12  Case Keenum $6,716.97 ($9,900.00) $0.00 ($3,183.03)
13  Joe Flacco $6,676.27 ($9,700.00) ($3,023.73)
14  Lamar Miller $2,295.85 ($5,300.00) $0.00 ($3,004.15)
15  Tarik Cohen $2,616.18 ($5,400.00) ($2,783.82)
16  Matthew Stafford
$7,126.29 ($9,900.00) $0.00 ($2,773.71)
17  Carson Wentz $6,539.23 ($9,300.00) $0.00 ($2,760.77)
18  David Johnson $2,715.59 ($5,400.00) $0.00 ($2,684.41)
19  Joe Mixon $2,689.16 ($5,300.00) $0.00 ($2,610.84)
20  Jordan Howard $1,633.38 ($4,200.00) ($2,566.62)

If you are a Raider fan and you have been betting on Dereck Carr to go over on his prop bets each week then the sportsbook loves you. If you are a daily fantasy football player and you want to take advantage of this then you can start to correlate the Bovada NFL player prop bet odds into your daily fantasy football models.

Prop Bet Results by Team

What if I had bet the over on my teams players every week?

A $100 bet on the OVER on every prop bet

OVER bets by Team
Teams Win Loss Push Grand Total
ARI $16,508.25 ($29,200.00) $0.00 ($12,691.75)
ATL $23,472.05 ($31,100.00) $0.00 ($7,627.95)
BAL $17,956.19 ($26,300.00) $0.00 ($8,343.81)
BUF $14,808.07 ($25,600.00) $0.00 ($10,791.93)
CAR $18,732.20 ($28,500.00) $0.00 ($9,767.80)
CHI $17,107.34 ($31,200.00) $0.00 ($14,092.66)
CIN $19,195.74 ($30,400.00) $0.00 ($11,204.26)
CLE $16,907.87 ($24,000.00) $0.00 ($7,092.13)
DAL $21,802.78 ($32,200.00) $0.00 ($10,397.22)
DEN $18,829.14 ($27,800.00) $0.00 ($8,970.86)
DET $18,448.76 ($27,900.00) $0.00 ($9,451.24)
GB $17,999.90 ($29,500.00) $0.00 ($11,500.10)
HOU $19,447.98 ($25,800.00) $0.00 ($6,352.02)
IND $19,422.88 ($22,000.00) $0.00 ($2,577.12)
JAC $18,392.23 ($28,100.00) $0.00 ($9,707.77)
KC $22,324.86 ($27,900.00) $0.00 ($5,575.14)
LAC $20,604.87 ($31,000.00) $0.00 ($10,395.13)
LAR $21,583.28 ($29,200.00) $0.00 ($7,616.72)
MIA $17,982.62 ($29,800.00) $0.00 ($11,817.38)
MIN $19,825.55 ($29,200.00) $0.00 ($9,374.45)
NE $21,778.46 ($31,600.00) $0.00 ($9,821.54)
NO $20,976.48 ($29,400.00) $0.00 ($8,423.52)
NYG $19,119.99 ($24,900.00) $0.00 ($5,780.01)
NYJ $14,944.02 ($26,300.00) $0.00 ($11,355.98)
OAK $17,210.75 ($28,200.00) $0.00 ($10,989.25)
PHI $20,264.26 ($32,900.00) $0.00 ($12,635.74)
PIT $19,410.32 ($28,400.00) $0.00 ($8,989.68)
SEA $19,040.14 ($29,800.00) $0.00 ($10,759.86)
SF $17,435.37 ($21,900.00) $0.00 ($4,464.63)
TB $19,749.31 ($25,500.00) $0.00 ($5,750.69)
TEN $18,650.03 ($29,700.00) $0.00 ($11,049.97)
WAS $15,356.82 ($28,500.00) $0.00 ($13,143.18)
Total $605,288.52 ($903,800.00) $0.00 ($298,511.48)

A lot of negative numbers. Again, this is a good example of how heavily NFL player prop bet odds are shaded to the over.

What about the under? Which team is the best for making money on under bets.

A $100 bet on the UNDER on every prop bet

UNDER bets by Team
Teams Win Loss Push Grand Total
ARI $26,538.94 ($20,000.00) $0.00 $6,538.94
ATL $28,842.87 ($28,000.00) $0.00 $842.87
BAL $23,913.12 ($21,000.00) $0.00 $2,913.12
BUF $22,686.84 ($17,400.00) $0.00 $5,286.84
CAR $26,290.34 ($22,700.00) $0.00 $3,590.34
CHI $28,567.75 ($20,500.00) $0.00 $8,067.75
CIN $28,077.97 ($23,100.00) $0.00 $4,977.97
CLE $21,852.41 ($20,300.00) $0.00 $1,552.41
DAL $29,353.66 ($25,500.00) $0.00 $3,853.66
DEN $25,140.19 ($22,900.00) $0.00 $2,240.19
DET $26,081.27 ($22,300.00) $0.00 $3,781.27
GB $26,162.34 ($21,300.00) $0.00 $4,862.34
HOU $24,010.74 ($23,600.00) $0.00 $410.74
IND $19,877.86 ($22,700.00) $0.00 ($2,822.14)
JAC $25,522.76 ($21,400.00) $0.00 $4,122.76
KC $25,896.81 ($26,300.00) $0.00 ($403.19)
LAC $27,706.73 ($24,500.00) $0.00 $3,206.73
LAR $26,575.33 ($25,200.00) $0.00 $1,375.33
MIA $27,306.88 ($21,600.00) $0.00 $5,706.88
MIN $27,038.45 ($24,100.00) $0.00 $2,938.45
NE $28,899.90 ($25,800.00) $0.00 $3,099.90
NO $26,861.91 ($24,400.00) $0.00 $2,461.91
NYG $22,989.73 ($22,800.00) $0.00 $189.73
NYJ $24,277.38 ($17,000.00) $0.00 $7,277.38
OAK $26,182.08 ($20,100.00) $0.00 $6,082.08
PHI $30,597.70 ($24,500.00) $0.00 $6,097.70
PIT $26,629.86 ($23,900.00) $0.00 $2,729.86
SEA $26,767.59 ($22,400.00) $0.00 $4,367.59
SF $19,959.55 ($21,000.00) $0.00 ($1,040.45)
TB $24,127.19 ($24,200.00) $0.00 ($72.81)
TEN $26,910.04 ($21,600.00) $0.00 $5,310.04
WAS $25,929.49 ($18,500.00) $0.00 $7,429.49
Total $827,575.67 ($720,600.00) $0.00 $106,975.67

Some money to be made here. I need to point out that some teams are negative if you bet the over or the under. Take a look at the San Francisco 49ers. If you bet the over on every NFL player prop bet then you would have lost $4,446. If you had bet the under of every NFL player prop bet then you would have lost $1,040. This is caused by the Vig on the odds.

Take a look at the Washington Redskins. They are the very last team listed on under bets. If you had only bet the under on the Redskins games for the last two and a half seasons then you would have pocketed over $7,000 in winnings. If you do not have a big bankroll then choosing one team that has a high return on under bets is the way to go.

Can I Make Money the Rest of the Season?

Is it too late to take advantage of this?

Nope. Take a look below at breakdown by week and you will see how consistent this betting advantage is.

OVER NFL player prop bets by week

OVER bets by Week
Teams Win Loss Push Grand Total
17NFL01 $12,484.50 ($13,100.00) $0.00 ($615.50)
17NFL02 $11,085.71 ($19,800.00) $0.00 ($8,714.29)
17NFL03 $14,761.21 ($17,500.00) $0.00 ($2,738.79)
17NFL04 $12,231.83 ($23,000.00) $0.00 ($10,768.17)
17NFL05 $12,843.09 ($17,800.00) $0.00 ($4,956.91)
17NFL06 $11,665.24 ($18,700.00) $0.00 ($7,034.76)
17NFL07 $12,430.19 ($21,700.00) $0.00 ($9,269.81)
17NFL08 $10,639.63 ($18,600.00) $0.00 ($7,960.37)
17NFL09 $13,284.92 ($15,600.00) $0.00 ($2,315.08)
17NFL10 $13,095.44 ($17,700.00) $0.00 ($4,604.56)
17NFL11 $12,658.30 ($17,500.00) $0.00 ($4,841.70)
17NFL12 $15,152.37 ($21,800.00) $0.00 ($6,647.63)
17NFL13 $14,887.33 ($21,900.00) $0.00 ($7,012.67)
17NFL14 $14,805.15 ($21,300.00) $0.00 ($6,494.85)
17NFL15 $13,261.36 ($20,200.00) $0.00 ($6,938.64)
17NFL16 $12,297.72 ($20,500.00) $0.00 ($8,202.28)
17NFL17 $5,445.82 ($9,600.00) $0.00 ($4,154.18)
18NFL01 $19,521.80 ($27,500.00) $0.00 ($7,978.20)
18NFL02 $20,289.85 ($24,000.00) $0.00 ($3,710.15)
18NFL03 $18,518.47 ($28,600.00) $0.00 ($10,081.53)
18NFL04 $21,276.19 ($24,900.00) $0.00 ($3,623.81)
18NFL05 $14,965.24 ($21,800.00) $0.00 ($6,834.76)
18NFL06 $14,041.66 ($23,000.00) $0.00 ($8,958.34)
18NFL07 $13,641.98 ($22,900.00) $0.00 ($9,258.02)
18NFL08 $12,656.36 ($21,900.00) $0.00 ($9,243.64)
18NFL09 $12,318.03 ($19,000.00) $0.00 ($6,681.97)
18NFL10 $14,570.46 ($21,300.00) $0.00 ($6,729.54)
18NFL11 $11,854.06 ($22,600.00) $0.00 ($10,745.94)
18NFL12 $15,409.24 ($21,100.00) $0.00 ($5,690.76)
18NFL13 $13,199.03 ($27,100.00) $0.00 ($13,900.97)
18NFL14 $14,944.91 ($26,200.00) $0.00 ($11,255.09)
18NFL15 $13,228.18 ($28,200.00) $0.00 ($14,971.82)
18NFL16 $14,016.64 ($20,400.00) $0.00 ($6,383.36)
18NFL17 $5,293.21 ($9,600.00) $0.00 ($4,306.79)
19NFL01 $19,908.60 ($23,300.00) $0.00 ($3,391.40)
19NFL02 $17,211.31 ($26,700.00) $0.00 ($9,488.69)
19NFL03 $20,232.80 ($23,700.00) $0.00 ($3,467.20)
19NFL04 $16,745.06 ($23,800.00) $0.00 ($7,054.94)
19NFL05 $16,305.92 ($25,900.00) $0.00 ($9,594.08)
19NFL06 $17,647.11 ($22,000.00) $0.00 ($4,352.89)
19NFL07 $15,363.96 ($26,300.00) $0.00 ($10,936.04)
19NFL08 $19,098.63 ($25,700.00) $0.00 ($6,601.37)
Total $605,288.52 ($903,800.00) $0.00 ($298,511.48)

UNDER NFL player prop bets by week

UNDER bets by Week
Teams Win Loss Push Grand Total
17NFL01 $11,821.56 ($15,200.00) $0.00 ($3,378.44)
17NFL02 $18,407.91 ($13,100.00) $0.00 $5,307.91
17NFL03 $16,238.25 ($17,400.00) $0.00 ($1,161.75)
17NFL04 $20,823.56 ($14,500.00) $0.00 $6,323.56
17NFL05 $16,032.94 ($15,100.00) $0.00 $932.94
17NFL06 $16,735.84 ($13,800.00) $0.00 $2,935.84
17NFL07 $19,027.83 ($14,600.00) $0.00 $4,427.83
17NFL08 $16,675.74 ($12,600.00) $0.00 $4,075.74
17NFL09 $14,142.38 ($14,800.00) $0.00 ($657.62)
17NFL10 $15,591.44 ($15,500.00) $0.00 $91.44
17NFL11 $15,746.95 ($15,000.00) $0.00 $746.95
17NFL12 $19,773.97 ($18,100.00) $0.00 $1,673.97
17NFL13 $20,228.54 ($17,700.00) $0.00 $2,528.54
17NFL14 $19,428.95 ($17,200.00) $0.00 $2,228.95
17NFL15 $18,396.57 ($15,600.00) $0.00 $2,796.57
17NFL16 $18,776.18 ($14,500.00) $0.00 $4,276.18
17NFL17 $8,460.62 ($6,200.00) $0.00 $2,260.62
18NFL01 $26,204.68 ($24,200.00) $0.00 $2,004.68
18NFL02 $23,189.12 ($25,100.00) $0.00 ($1,910.88)
18NFL03 $27,357.45 ($23,100.00) $0.00 $4,257.45
18NFL04 $24,061.31 ($26,300.00) $0.00 ($2,238.69)
18NFL05 $20,717.91 ($18,600.00) $0.00 $2,117.91
18NFL06 $22,259.40 ($17,300.00) $0.00 $4,959.40
18NFL07 $21,668.48 ($17,100.00) $0.00 $4,568.48
18NFL08 $20,615.54 ($15,600.00) $0.00 $5,015.54
18NFL09 $17,621.00 ($14,900.00) $0.00 $2,721.00
18NFL10 $19,450.34 ($17,400.00) $0.00 $2,050.34
18NFL11 $21,109.80 ($14,000.00) $0.00 $7,109.80
18NFL12 $19,437.83 ($18,100.00) $0.00 $1,337.83
18NFL13 $24,477.73 ($15,400.00) $0.00 $9,077.73
18NFL14 $23,227.21 ($17,600.00) $0.00 $5,627.21
18NFL15 $25,318.92 ($15,500.00) $0.00 $9,818.92
18NFL16 $18,481.92 ($16,600.00) $0.00 $1,881.92
18NFL17 $8,395.35 ($6,100.00) $0.00 $2,295.35
19NFL01 $21,638.09 ($23,500.00) $0.00 ($1,861.91)
19NFL02 $24,333.89 ($20,200.00) $0.00 $4,133.89
19NFL03 $21,596.09 ($23,500.00) $0.00 ($1,903.91)
19NFL04 $22,012.13 ($19,800.00) $0.00 $2,212.13
19NFL05 $22,860.26 ($19,300.00) $0.00 $3,560.26
19NFL06 $19,292.13 ($20,800.00) $0.00 ($1,507.87)
19NFL07 $23,224.71 ($17,800.00) $0.00 $5,424.71
19NFL08 $22,715.12 ($21,900.00) $0.00 $815.12
Total $827,575.67 ($720,600.00) $0.00 $106,975.67